And.... what if only the technological aspects has this evolution but not the human side? I bet far more on this sense... chances of a global big brother system are way higher than this nice piece of thought...
Re. "The reality of accelerating progress in key science and technology areas is beyond sensible debate"--I would instead say that the myth of accelerating progress is debunked beyond sensible debate. It would be absurd to say that we've made as much technological progress in the 50 years since 1970 as in the 50 years from 1920-1970, or the 50 years from 1870-1920, or the 50 years from 1820-1870.
What is your argument for that? In agriculture for example, the progress has been remarkable in the last 50 years, way more than in the previous 50 years and so on....
That IS my argument. Compare tech in the years 1870, 1920, 1970, and 2020. I think it's obvious that the smallest leap is obviously from 1970 to 2020. The importance of the new science and tech that came out in each of the other 2 intervals is IMHO an order of magnitude greater. (I'm speaking only of the West; things have changed more over the past 50 years in the rest of the world.)
In 1920, very few Americans had electricity, running water, a telephone, a record player, or a car; and nobody had central heating, air conditioning, radio, or television. No one flew in airplanes except pilots. There were no antibiotics, sulfa drugs, X-rays, anaesthesia, or major surgeries. Anesthesia was still uncommon and dangerous. Travelling between cities was by horse. Communication with Europe was only for urgent news, via morse code on the trans-Atlantic cable. Travelling to Europe took weeks. There were no plastics and very little rubber. People spent more than 1/3 of their money on food. I could go on and on.
In agriculture, the latest game-changer was the Green Revolution of the 1960s, so your example has got it backwards. The great game-changers before that were the introductions of large efficient farms, the interstate system, combines and tractors, a wide variety of automatic planting / reaping / processing machinery, artificial fertilizer, pesticides, railways, natural fertilizer, 3-crop rotation, etc., each of which was more important than anything that's happened in agriculture in the past 50 years
There you get it , the green revolution started 50 years ago and see the outcome of it.... what a revolution... now we can grow 100x mores in vertical farms, etc.... this will be the trend in the next 50 years.
And.... what if only the technological aspects has this evolution but not the human side? I bet far more on this sense... chances of a global big brother system are way higher than this nice piece of thought...
Re. "The reality of accelerating progress in key science and technology areas is beyond sensible debate"--I would instead say that the myth of accelerating progress is debunked beyond sensible debate. It would be absurd to say that we've made as much technological progress in the 50 years since 1970 as in the 50 years from 1920-1970, or the 50 years from 1870-1920, or the 50 years from 1820-1870.
What is your argument for that? In agriculture for example, the progress has been remarkable in the last 50 years, way more than in the previous 50 years and so on....
That IS my argument. Compare tech in the years 1870, 1920, 1970, and 2020. I think it's obvious that the smallest leap is obviously from 1970 to 2020. The importance of the new science and tech that came out in each of the other 2 intervals is IMHO an order of magnitude greater. (I'm speaking only of the West; things have changed more over the past 50 years in the rest of the world.)
In 1920, very few Americans had electricity, running water, a telephone, a record player, or a car; and nobody had central heating, air conditioning, radio, or television. No one flew in airplanes except pilots. There were no antibiotics, sulfa drugs, X-rays, anaesthesia, or major surgeries. Anesthesia was still uncommon and dangerous. Travelling between cities was by horse. Communication with Europe was only for urgent news, via morse code on the trans-Atlantic cable. Travelling to Europe took weeks. There were no plastics and very little rubber. People spent more than 1/3 of their money on food. I could go on and on.
In agriculture, the latest game-changer was the Green Revolution of the 1960s, so your example has got it backwards. The great game-changers before that were the introductions of large efficient farms, the interstate system, combines and tractors, a wide variety of automatic planting / reaping / processing machinery, artificial fertilizer, pesticides, railways, natural fertilizer, 3-crop rotation, etc., each of which was more important than anything that's happened in agriculture in the past 50 years
There you get it , the green revolution started 50 years ago and see the outcome of it.... what a revolution... now we can grow 100x mores in vertical farms, etc.... this will be the trend in the next 50 years.